I hope all is well. My name is Michael A. Spotts, and I am an Arlington resident; housing and community development policy research professional; and former Vice-Chair of the Affordable Housing Master Plan (AHMP) Working Group.[1] I write today in my personal capacity to express support for the County staff Missing Middle proposal. The County staff members working on this initiative have done a tremendous job evaluating a complex, contentious issue over a multi-year process and have developed a high-quality proposal that is consistent with what is, in my professional opinion, national best practices. The staff has created a proposal to directly address our critical housing shortage, while compromising in some areas and working to resolve the legitimate concerns raised by skeptics of the missing middle concept.
The County has been receiving feedback on this proposal, both in support and opposition. I believe that the proposal would be highly beneficial to the County and should be further developed and, eventually, adopted under the currently delineated timeframe. That does not mean that all concerns of skeptics and opponents are illegitimate. However, I believe that these issues can be adequately addressed within the current framework. As for concerns about the public engagement and outreach process, County staff have conducted outreach in various forums and using broad platforms to expand outreach beyond those that typically - and more easily – participate in such engagement efforts. The fact that the County staff engaged with established institutions (such as civic associations) and considered their concerns, but did not prioritize any individual constituency is a sign of the diligence with which staff undertook their charge. Now that County staff has addressed the technical challenges and identified a potential solution, I urge the County Board to take a leadership role in advancing this proposal by making the case for missing middle housing and addressing good-faith concerns of all constituencies – whether supportive or skeptical.
The following section outlines more detailed comments on both the broad issues and specific components of the Missing Middle Proposal. I have also enclosed a written expansion on a presentation I gave to the Arlington Committee of 100 in May 2021 on the Missing Middle issue, which addresses many of the core issues in more detail.
Thank you in advance for considering these comments. As always, please feel free to contact me at mspotts@neighborhodfundamentals.com with questions, requests for additional information, or supportive references/documentation that informs the comments to follow.
The Big Picture: To equitably thrive long-term, Arlington must evolve
Arlington’s long-term and prevailing growth model has been a success on many measures. However, as documented throughout the Missing Middle study process, the past growth model has led to both intended and unintended consequences that have contributed to racial disparities and declining affordability.
During my time in Arlington, the County has been held up as a leader in addressing population growth and producing committed affordable housing. This reputation has been well earned, through actions such as the County’s commitment to the creation and preservation of affordable units through AHIF and certain innovative land use policies (such as the Columbia Pike Neighborhoods Form Based Code and its focus on preservation of affordability).
However, the County’s underlying land use and zoning framework has not adequately evolved to meet the challenge of shifting markets, changing demographics, and the latest innovations in housing policy and practice. Specifically, the past model of high-density in a relatively small number of corridors and preservation of detached single-family neighborhoods has contributed to a hollowing out of the middle-cost housing stock.
While some argue that Arlington is “full” or should seek to push back against demand/growth, that perspective either does not adequately consider the needs of those currently lacking equal access to quality, affordable housing, and is often based on the fiction that “closing our doors” will make demand disappear. When we talk about “demand,” we are really talking about people. People need a place to live, and those with lesser means are the most likely to suffer the consequences if we (a) overly restrict growth; and (b) fail to take steps to support potentially vulnerable households. When debating whether Arlington should grow, it is important to consider the counterfactual – if we do not build in Arlington, where will people go?
The answers will vary. Some will be able to find a home in Arlington, but suffer financial distress. However, a non-trivial number of people will be priced out and seek housing opportunities elsewhere. This often drives development further from the urban core. Regions are complex ecosystems, and Arlington is acutely impacted by what happens elsewhere. Arlington is also “downstream,” figuratively and literally. We cannot address environmental issues (flooding, air quality) in Arlington by shifting housing production further out of the core, which results in even greater loss of tree cover, open space, impervious surface, etc. We cannot solve traffic by pushing people farther out, given that many people are commuting to – or through – Arlington.
The County’s Missing Middle proposal would rectify a mistake made decades ago to restrict all housing supply growth to a limited number of neighborhoods. This proposal allows all of Arlington to evolve. In the context of most things, evolution is a good thing. Enabling evolution allows communities to naturally respond (often, though not always, slowly over time) to market shifts, consumer preferences, and housing needs. Allowing diverse housing types can facilitate aging-in-place and provide more opportunities for people to stay in their community as their lives evolve and needs and/or preferences change.
Prescriptive policies – and lengthy processes for amending them – prevent this evolution and create the market distortions and pent-up demand that we are facing today. While this policy is not perfect from an “evolutionary” perspective (for example, maintaining the current framework for massing, setbacks, etc. is still restrictive), it would move Arlington County decidedly in a positive direction and represents a reasonable compromise. It also would provide datapoints for another critical component of sustainable growth – a focus on “iterative policymaking” based on real-world trial and error.
The current proposal to apply missing middle – and the opportunity for housing supply growth – to all parts of the County also addresses many of the concerns of those worried about the prospect of missing middle housing. Based on available literature, it is my belief that evolutionary growth and modest increases in density throughout the County (in addition to more intense development in key, robustly planned corridors) is fiscally beneficial, increasing tax revenue on a per acre basis (even while producing comparatively lower-cost housing than the prevailing model) and better supporting our existing, over-built infrastructure (inappropriately wide streets) in many low-density neighborhoods. However, even if one were to accept the disputed suggestion that restricting growth creates some fiscal benefits for Arlington (by reducing the need for infrastructure outlays), contributing to a more sprawling regional growth model would have negative fiscal impacts on the state, with long-term spillover impacts on the County’s budget. Research also supports the notion that a more diverse housing stock is more resilient in downturns. This makes logical sense, as a wider range of housing types and price points expands the potential “consumer base” seeking to live in a given place. Furthermore, allowing the whole county to absorb demand can limit speculation and dramatic land cost increases. Finally, spreading demand can also reduce the likelihood that any specific neighborhood experiences rapid, concentrated neighborhood change.
The Specific Proposal: By-Right within Existing Development Paradigm
For the reasons stated above, the by-right nature of the current proposal is one of its strongest elements and should be prioritized above most other considerations. If Arlington wants to shift the development paradigm to allow more diverse housing types, it must remove as many barriers to such development as possible. The current model of single-family additions, tear-downs, and expansions has proven to be a lucrative business model. Any barrier that continues to make the status quo the “path of least resistance” undermines the goals of actually producing middle-density homes.
A critical component of barrier removal is County staff’s proposal to reduce off-street parking requirements. The proposal is correct in prioritizing homes for people over “homes” for cars. In a space constrained environment, arduous parking requirements can reduce the viability of missing middle types or reduce the number of units a parcel can absorb. It is also important to remember that the proposal is for parking minimums, not maximums. Those producing missing middle homes will need to rent or sell homes that are viable in the market. In areas with sparse on-street parking, developers may choose to provide more than the minimum (just as many developers of larger single-family detached homes build two-car garages and include additional off-street space in excess of County minimums today). That is not to say that spillover parking challenges will not happen anywhere. However, I believe that these can be managed with more effective on-street parking management policies. The County has taken steps in that direction in recent years, but more can be done to address imbalances between managed and unmanaged zones.
Another clear benefit of this proposal is that it allows missing middle housing to be produced without tear-downs. The act of demolishing a home – especially one that still is structurally sound – literally destroys value, adds costs, and thus decreases the feasibility of missing middle housing (or raises the minimum price point at which it can be produced. Under this proposal, new missing middle homes can viably be “added on” to existing homes, creating another alternative to large additions to single-family homes.
The proposal would also allow converting existing, larger single-family detached homes to missing middle housing without any increase in footprint. Given the significant number of very large units that have replaced smaller units, this provides another option for families that no longer need as much space and improves the resilience of Arlington’s housing market. The latter issue is particularly relevant in the context of a rising interest rate environment. Many of the current home expansions have occurred during a time of historically low interest rates. Demand for resales of such homes may be considerably diminished if mortgage rates rise to those that were considered “normal” during the 1980s and 1990s (let alone during the last period of high-inflation). This change could minimize the potential financial harm to current Arlington homeowners.
Immediate Opportunities for Improving the Proposal
As the County develops specific code revisions, it should adopt policies that facilitate the subdivision of parcels being developed or redeveloped as missing middle into individual lots. Allowing subdivision will not change the number of units that could be built on a specific parcel (pre-subdivision). However, it could make it easier to develop horizontal attached housing without the need to establish condominium associations/agreements. This enables “fee simple” ownership. The combination of horizontal attached with fee simple structures can be less costly (no condo fees) and complicated (individual owners are responsible for their own properties, rather than having to collectively manage common maintenance) to both develop and steward over the long term. To be clear, this comment should not be interpreted as a critique of condominium-style missing middle development and/or vertical missing middle models. Rather, it is a call to develop missing middle policies in a way that maximizes the number of potentially viable development and ownership models/structures.
Beyond that, I offer no specific comments on immediate opportunities for improving the proposal, other than that the County should maintain the current potential units counts and work diligently to ensure that as the proposal shifts to actual policy language that the specific details do not create de facto barriers to missing middle housing. To accomplish this, engagement with developers and builders (including nonprofit affordable homeownership developers active across the Washington, DC region) will be helpful.
Longer-Term Opportunities for Facilitating Effective Growth through Missing Middle Housing
Enabling evolutionary growth (as this proposal does) by-right is a critical first step. However, as the proposal’s initial projections suggest, the number of units produced are likely to be modest in any individual year, with benefits to housing supply growth accumulating over time. After observing initial, real-world impacts of the policy, the County could adopt complementary policies that enable additional missing middle types that do not fall within existing building envelopes, such as rowhomes (allowing the creation of neighborhoods like Glebewood) or garden-style apartments (as in Westover or Barcroft). These are existing typologies that the County has made efforts to preserve. If such neighborhoods are worth preserving, it makes sense that there should be policies that allow more of these housing types to be developed.
Flexibility in form, density, setbacks, height, coverage etc. allows for development creativity (enabling cost reductions) and can allow for the provision of community benefits such as committed affordability and the preservation of open space, trees, etc. (see additional discussion below).[2] For larger developments and/or parcel consolidation, such developments could merit additional planning beyond what the County envisions on a by-right basis. The form that such a policy could take can vary, but the County could create a specific path that enables such developments (such as a lower-density neighborhoods form-based code). Another option could be to allow neighborhoods to initiate, develop, and adopt specific plans that guide growth in their community (for example, prioritizing “cottage clusters”) provided that such plans do not have the de jure or de facto impact of restricting, rather than facilitating, missing middle beyond what the by-right provisions allow. To reiterate, the County should view such non-by-right policies as a complement to – and not a replacement for – the current by-right proposal, which is essential to the success of the missing middle policy.
Missing Middle and the Potential for Improved Affordability
Missing middle has the opportunity to serve as a platform for affordability. Some critiques of the proposal have emphasized that newly constructed missing middle housing will not be “affordable per se” to lower-income households. However, missing middle housing would certainly be comparably more affordable than the counterfactual – which is not existing, older single-family detached homes, but the results of the redevelopment of those homes into larger, higher-end single-family detached homes.
Missing middle can facilitate rental housing in predominantly owner-occupied neighborhoods, adding a degree of income diversity. It can also create a streamlined pathway to niche housing types that meet specific needs – for example, clusters of service enriched housing targeted toward older adults and/or persons with disabilities, which facilitates multigenerational neighborhoods and inclusive living regardless of age and ability.
That being said, much attention has been paid to the impacts of missing middle housing on homeownership affordability. To be clear, the current zoning paradigm ensures that over the long term, affordable homeownership is an impossibility. Given current housing costs and the pricing trajectory for single-family detached homes, there is no scalable, long-term solution that preserves even a modest level of affordability AND single-family exclusivity in such neighborhoods. It would be perverse to double down on our current, failed model in the name of affordability. Market-rate, missing middle development reaching levels of affordability for households at $108,000 (as the projections show) would be a substantial improvement over the status quo. To illustrate using data from the National Housing Conference’s Paycheck-to-Paycheck database, that price point would open up homeownership – without subsidy – to two-income households with a wide range of occupations (for example, an electrician and a bus driver, or a teacher and a janitor/cleaner).
Median Wage by Occupation for Washington, DC Metropolitan Region (Source: National Housing Conference)